Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Dead, Says Pierre Rochard — Here’s What Drives BTC Price Now

For over a decade, Bitcoin’s market rhythm seemed predictable. Every four years, the halving event, a programmed cut to mining rewards, would trigger a chain reaction.

Prices would climb to new highs, then collapse into a brutal “crypto winter,” only to begin the cycle again. That pattern has been treated almost like gospel among crypto traders. Now, some of the industry’s most vocal analysts say it may be over.

From BTC Halvings to Liquidity Waves: Analysts Say Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Losing Its Grip

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, believes the traditional cycle is no longer relevant, in a post on X.

His argument touches on something fundamental: with most Bitcoin already mined, the halving’s supply shock is much smaller than it once was. In the early days, slashing miner rewards had a dramatic impact on market flow.

Today, the real market drivers may be institutional inflows, regulated investment products, and global macroeconomic conditions.

The halving has been at the heart of Bitcoin’s historical market structure. Roughly every four years, the rewards miners receive for validating transactions are cut in half. With fewer coins entering circulation, the supply shock has often been followed by aggressive price rallies. But the April 2024 halving did not follow the usual script.

Bitcoin had already set a new all-time high above $73,000 in March, weeks before the event, driven largely by the U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the surge of institutional inflows that followed.

Jason Dussault, CEO of Intellistake.ai, believes this marks a structural shift. “The halving still plays a role, but it’s no longer the main heartbeat,” he told CryptoNews.

He added that “Today, price action is just as tied to global liquidity, ETF flows, and investor sentiment as it is to on-chain supply dynamics. We’re seeing Bitcoin respond to the same forces that move equities, bonds, and commodities.”

Others argue the end of the 4-year cycle is simply the end of Bitcoin’s adolescence. “The romantic idea of Bitcoin moving to a four-year halving heartbeat belongs to its adolescence,” said Mete Al, co-founder of ICB Labs while speaking to CryptoNews.

“We’re in its adulthood now — where trillion-dollar liquidity waves, Wall Street products, and macro flows have far more say than a simple supply cut,” he noted.

Still, not everyone is ready to call the cycle dead. Speaking to CryptoNews, Connor Howe, CEO of Enso, said the halving’s influence has been diluted, not erased.

“In Bitcoin’s early years, miner supply shocks were a dominant driver of price. Today, macro conditions, ETF flows, and institutional positioning have far more weight. The halving still matters for miner economics and long-term scarcity narratives, but traders can no longer rely on a rigid 4-year playbook.”

Also, Prashant Maurya, co-founder and CEO of Spheron, reiterated the same thing while speaking to CryptoNews, saying, “The halving isn’t irrelevant, but it’s no longer the main driver of Bitcoin’s price. In the early days, cutting new supply had an outsized impact.”

Analysts Say Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Driven More by Liquidity Than Halvings

The broader crypto market seems to agree something is changing. The total cryptocurrency market cap just hit a record $4.13 trillion, according to CoinGecko, surpassing the $3.9 trillion peak of the last cycle.

Trading volumes are also surging, with nearly $145 billion worth of crypto changing hands in 24 hours.

However, some market watchers are already warning against overconfidence. Toby Cunningham, co-host of Crypto Tips, told his 30k followers, “I’m hearing the 4-year cycle is no longer valid, and we are about to go on a multi-year bull market. This is the type of talk that happens near the top of bull markets. This is one major reason why most won’t make a cent this bull.”

Others take an even harder stance. A crypto analyst known as SightBringer argued that the 4-year cycle was never a law of nature and that it was a byproduct of Bitcoin’s early structure, when retail capital dominated and halvings shocked supply.

Instead, he points to a new regime shaped by institutional collateralization, global liquidity conditions, and sovereign holdings. “Liquidity dictates the cycle now. Bear markets change shape. Tops get stealthy. The players have changed. The battlefield has changed,” he added.

For investors, the shift could mean replacing the familiar patience-for-four-years strategy with a more nimble, macro-driven approach. Prashant Maurya, co-founder and CEO of Spheron, said, “For me, the old halving cycle is being replaced by a multi-factor framework that combines macro, on-chain supply metrics, and capital flows. Long-term, Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption story stay the same, but timing entries and exits will increasingly be about reading liquidity cycles, not counting down to the next halving.”

The familiar script of parabolic rallies followed by brutal “crypto winters” may not return in its old form. Bear markets might still happen, but with sovereign entities, ETFs, and custodians holding a large share of Bitcoin’s float, total collapse into obscurity becomes less likely.

Likewise, market tops may no longer be marked by retail euphoria but by quiet distribution when liquidity peaks.

As Rochard puts it, “Miners are passengers they no longer drive the bus.” And if that’s true, the map for Bitcoin’s journey will need a serious redraw.

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