Are We Entering Wave V? Further Bitcoin Downside Still Likely, Analysts Say

As the crypto market continues trading sideways, analysts argue that we may soon enter the last phase of this bull run, but also that we’ll likely see further downside. However, there are significant risk-off factors preventing a Bitcoin (BTC) recovery.

The crypto market posted a notable increase last week, but dipped over the weekend and started this week lower.

Looking at BTC, over the past 24 hours, it dropped from the intraday high of $95,467 to the low of $92,263. At the time of writing (Monday afternoon, UTC), BTC is trading at $92,973.

Notably, it has appreciated 2.6% in a week and 5.4% in a month.

Wave V Incoming?

In a recent email, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at digital asset financial services company Ledn, argued that we are currently in Wave IV of the major bull run. We may potentially soon enter the fifth and final section of the bull’s track.

Therefore, the current wave’s competition target for BTC is between $71,000 and $84,000, he says. The breakdown of any corrective wave is an A-B-C structure, as seen in the chart below.

Now, the question is whether the yellow path is the full Wave IV or we will follow the purple path and see another move lower to $71,000, Glover writes.

“From the breakerdown of wave C within this corrective pattern, it seems like another leg lower is likely,” he adds.

The confirmation of the path we’re following will come from either:

As a reminder, Wave IV is the fourth phase of a five-wave bullish impulse sequence. This is according to the popular price prediction model called Elliott Wave Theory.

Per this model, during the five phases of the positive trend, wave four goes down and corrects against the trend set by wave three. Then wave five takes over, goes up and reaches a new peak. After this, the three waves of the negative trend begin.

Another Drop Likely

Nic Puckrin, digital asset analyst and co-founder of the Coin Bureau, highlighted that BTC has broken below a key support level of $94,000. This marked the January breakout trend line.

He added that the sell-off rides on the back of tariff news and geopolitics. These are coming out of the US in particular.

“From here, it’s likely we’ll see further downside unless buyers step in, with strong support around $88,000. So far, a small rebound has taken BTC back above $93,000, but it’s nothing to write home about.“

In the US, the markets closed today for a federal holiday, and volatility persists. The possibility of a deeper sell-off depends on whether BTC closes the day below $90,000, Puckrin writes. This could see exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders exiting positions when the US market opens on Tuesday.

Finally, as altcoins bleed, the analyst says, precious metals are surging. “Unfortunately, investors holding out for a rotation from metals to altcoins will be sorely disappointed, as the uncertainty and fears around Greenland are likely to get worse before they get better,” Puckrin concludes.

Bitcoin: Logical Hedge Against Institutional Decay

Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at global multi-asset broker XS.com, said that Bitcoin’s latest downtrend is the result of a mix of profit-taking and a “risk-off” pivot, Hasn writes. This follows a renewed spike in US political risk, as well as geopolitical and trade tensions. These risk-off factors are preventing a notable BTC recovery.

These factors include a criminal investigation into the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as the stalled confirmation process of the bank’s new head. These have “effectively paralyzed the central bank’s leadership transition.”

The loss of Fed autonomy “could very well sow the seeds for the demise of dollar dominance, a scenario that would permanently redefine the global financial hierarchy,” he says, citing Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank.

This affects the crypto market sentiment, as “uncertainty regarding the Fed’s autonomy typically triggers a flight from dollar-denominated assets,” Hasn argues.

“For the crypto markets, this ‘politicized dollar’ narrative serves as a long-term bull case, even if current prices are dipping. If investors lose faith in U.S. government debt and the Fed’s autonomy, decentralized assets like Bitcoin and ‘hard’ assets like gold, which has already seen skyrocketing prices, become the logical hedge against institutional decay.”

Meanwhile, there are also global geopolitical tensions to take into account. These are primarily between the US and China, as well as the US and Europe. The latter is currently focused on Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland.

Moreover, the upcoming days are bringing fresh US PCE inflation data and the World Economic Forum in Davos. Solid inflation figures could definitively “put the lid” on hopes for a near-term rate cut, forcing a repricing of bonds and equities alike.

Finally, the Bank of Japan’s “surprise hawkishness” or an intervention to save the yen could “trigger a massive liquidity squeeze, sending tremors through Western markets already on edge.”

Hasn concludes that, “ultimately, we see a shift from ‘market fundamentals’ to ‘geopolitical theater’ as the primary driver of price action.”

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