ETH To $5000 By This Weekend? Elliott Wave 5 Targets $5,013 As Shorts Get Wrecked

Ethereum is looking ready to break above $5,000 after surging more than 200% from its $1,385 low recorded four months ago. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $4,680 after touching $4,715. It currently sits merely 2% below its 2021 peak.

Market participants anticipate a break above $5,000 this weekend, particularly as the key SMA30 (30-day Simple Moving Average) indicator has shown considerable strength in recent weeks.

SMA30 Reveals 40,000 Daily ETH Outflows Keep Bulls in Control

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that as of August 12, the ETH SMA30 registers -40,000 ETH, with an average daily outflow of 40,000 throughout the past month.

To understand this metric properly, positive net inflow values typically indicate potential selling pressure, while negative values, representing ETH outflows, mean buying pressure is taking control.

Retail investors tend to sell during these periods while institutional players accumulate positions. For example, Arthur Hayes liquidated 2,373 ETH (valued at $8.32 million) one week ago when ETH traded around $3,507, only to repurchase at higher levels.

Meanwhile, ETFs purchased $1 billion worth of Ethereum in a single trading session.

The ETF influence is generating buying pressure and driving prices upward. CryptoQuant analyst “burakkesmeci” maintains that as long as the SMA30 remains in negative territory, Ethereum’s upward trajectory is expected to persist.

“Unless we witness a reversal into positive territory, this rally’s momentum could stay intact in the near term,” the analyst said.

The buying volume and pressure show no signs of diminishing anytime soon. Ethereum has now exceeded a $567 billion market capitalization for the first time in four years, with daily trading volume surpassing $60 billion.

Yesterday, ETH treasury companies prepared to acquire $27 billion worth of ETH, equivalent to 40% of all ETH currently available on exchanges.

Five Ethereum treasury companies presently hold approximately 2,400,000 ETH combined (valued at $5 billion). Tom Lee’s BitMine alone accumulated over $2.9 billion worth of ETH (5% of the Ethereum supply).

Why ETH Could Break $5,000 This Weekend

The substantial dry capital positioned to bid on Ethereum would likely push it into price discovery territory, potentially establishing new highs above $5,000.

Consider that ETH reached $4,868 in 2021 without several current catalysts. For instance, back in 2021, neither ETFs nor treasury companies were purchasing billions in ETH weekly.

The U.S. President wasn’t supporting cryptocurrency (let alone holding $500M+ in Ethereum as President Trump does), and OTC desks weren’t experiencing ETH supply shortages.

These catalysts, combined with increasing altcoin market dominance, suggest that Ethereum is positioned to continue outperforming the broader market.

Crypto investor LordofAlts believes Ethereum can achieve $5,000 by this weekend. His analysis suggests Ethereum is following a familiar pattern of breakout, fake-out, reclaim, and subsequent pump.

“ETH is flipping the entire market script and running strong. Now that shorts have been perfectly liquidated, you know what’s coming next. One piece of news, and this movement will become explosive.”

Fellow crypto investor TedPillows also pointed out that ETH is preparing to break out of its four-year sideways trading range. He projects a $10,000 target for Ethereum near the cycle peak.

Ethereum Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave 5 Points to $5,013

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour ETH/USD chart displays a clear Elliott Wave pattern and appears to be progressing through wave five of the current bullish cycle.

Price recently reached $4,699 during wave three, experienced a corrective decline in wave four, and is now advancing toward the projected $5,013 target, with broader resistance extending toward $5,216.

The RSI currently sits at an elevated 76, suggesting overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback before the next upward movement. Price action remains well above the 9-period SMA, demonstrating robust upward momentum.

Should the current rally lose steam, a retreat toward the $4,492–$4,410 support zone is possible before continuing.

Overall, momentum and wave structure indicate a near-term push higher, though short-term consolidation or correction appears likely before a decisive move toward the $5,000 level.

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